The economic gerontocracy is in control of the planet. The numbers sparkle like diamonds in a jeweller's window. The infinitely cited BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), together with the United States, the world's leading power, control 48.9% of the world's GDP. If global GDP in 2023, according to AFI calculations, was 105 trillion dollars, these six nations hold 51.34 trillion (46.31 trillion euros) of the world's wealth.

The ‘problem’ arises with a simple count. The first leaders of these countries (Lula, 78 years; Putin, 71 years; Modi, 74 years; Jinping, 71 years; Cyril Ramaphosa, 71 years) add up to 444 years, with an average lifespan of 74 years. And to the petrol have been added the embers of the fire. Because Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey's 70-year-old president, has called for integration into the BRICS. A country with a wealth of 907.1 billion dollars (about 818 billion euros at the current exchange rate), according to data from 2022.

To these we can add that Joe Biden, instead of handing over the baton to Kamala Harris (59 years old), is going to hand it over to Trump, 78 years old: the planet continues to orbit around the gerontocracy. Harris would have been an exception among most of the most powerful countries on Earth.

The fate, directly or indirectly, of 8 billion human beings depends on the elderly. Now that life expectancy is lengthening, that beautiful word – elderly - has been replaced by the concept older adult, a new ‘disaster’ box. Too often it serves only to hide the finiteness of man's existence. A self-deception.

‘There is some truth into this ageing, but I would be unable to predict the consequences,’ says Joseph Nye, 78, former US Secretary of Defence under Bill Clinton and professor at Harvard University's Kennedy School of International Relations. ‘However, there are cases,’ he notes, ‘that don't fit the pattern: France, Italy, Spain, Ireland’.

Every country is a world, but let's think, for example, of a world that is a country: the United States would elect a president in November. Since the Founding Fathers it has had its own rules of universal gravitation, a different way of understanding strengths and weaknesses. Donald Trump (78), adept at coining disparaging remarks about his rivals while Biden (81) remained in the race for the Oval Office, constantly repeated the catchphrase Biden for Residence, counteracting the slogan, Biden for Presidency.

Any expert would argue that it is intellectual, not physical, capacity that should prevail. ‘Some people in their 70s and older are perfectly qualified to continue working and hold positions of responsibility. To say otherwise is to discriminate, in this case on the basis of age,’ reflects Mauro Guillén, professor at the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania: ‘We must not fall into ageism’.

A perfect argument. Incontestable. But life in the 21^st century is neither perfect nor incontestable. America - which has a long and powerful tradition of war veterans - understands that the physical side counts, and counts for a lot. They do not want to see a president who takes the wrong side at a hearing. It conveys - they think - weakness in the face of your enemies. They cannot allow it. Because they represent the most advanced liberal democracy in the world. The New York Times editorials calling for him to step aside and allow Kamala Harris to run indicate that America is a young nation, where youth adds and rarely subtracts. It is in its history, in its wars, of which there have been many, throughout the 20^th and 21^st centuries.

Biden's falls, his forgetfulness, made an impression on American voters, and there was doubt as to whether he would withstand the intense and tough electoral rally,’ comments Carlota García Encina, Senior Researcher on the United States and Transatlantic Relations at the Elcano Royal Institute. Moreover, ‘Europe has different values than the US’. One need only to think of the generals, or professionals with military training, who have reached, or been close to, the Oval Office.

It is indisputable - says Rafael Puyol, president of the International University of La Rioja (UNIR-Spain) - that ‘we have gained years over life and life over the years.’ Although he warns: ‘Perhaps because of its younger population, the American mentality has not yet taken on board the ageing process as it has in Europe.  The last campaign election in the US showed that youth is just another star on their flag. However, the numbers are the anchors of a mountaineer climbing eight-thousand mountains. An incontestable ‘otra ratio’ - a different reason.

The GDP, according to what is called purchasing power parity (PPP), which, to put it simply, answers the question of how much money would be needed if we wanted to buy identical goods and services in two different countries, represents - AFI experts describe - 49.1% (BRICS plus the United States) of the wealth of this blue globe orbiting the Milky Way.

And that number has consequences. It affects economic prosperity and also the passage of time. ‘As we get older, human beings are nearing the end of our life cycle and tend to be more risk-averse, and having rulers at that age could slow down the reform agenda,’ warns economist José Carlos Diez. The human condition arises. ‘Older leaders don't go in for innovation, their strategy tends to be short term,’ stresses José Manuel Amor, managing partner of AFI. ‘Older people are more conservative and find it difficult to adapt to change. What we really ignore is the world we are going to.’

The experts consult their own crystal ball. 65 is the 50 of 15 years ago. These types of phrases are continually being bandied about in the media. Hope is the title of the future novel being written today. ‘Greater longevity means that there are older people and, therefore, this will be reflected in all aspects, including politicians, CEOs and business managers,’ observes José Montalvo, Professor of Economics at the Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF). ‘They also arrive in better health, both physically and mentally,’ he describes, adding that ‘experience is highly valued for this type of position; a very long career implies a deeper and more strategic perception of knowledge, together with greater connections, which also makes it easier for them to remain in positions of responsibility for longer’.

But beyond experience, it also suffers from short-term thinking, higher aversion to risk and to young people who are hardly mobilised. There is a fracture. Where is the space for rest or retirement? ‘A person of 60, 70 or 80 is not the same today as half a century ago. And the trend will continue, especially thanks to technology. I bet you that our children will see 90 and 100-year-old persons working,’ predicts sociologist Mauro Guillén. Is that what we expect from life: to work more years?

For the first time in history, older people outnumber children under 5 in the world, and by 2050 they will outnumber both adolescents and 15-24 year olds. This phenomenon will be similar in the United States, Australia, Canada, New Zealand and Japan. Countless democracies. Analysts argue that it is one of the greatest success stories of the 20^th century. However, like the new technologies, it raises essential questions for human beings whose answers we ignore.

See, Así es como la gerontocracia domina el mundo