Global warming is nothing new, but in 2024, the tone is more serious than ever in this highly alarming report: The African continent is sinking, both climatically and economically, and the repercussions of the ongoing catastrophe will extend far beyond its borders.

The year 2023 was marked by temperatures that were still well above normal in Africa: +0.61°C above the average for the last 30 years and +1.28°C above the 1961-1990 average.

In Mali, Morocco, Uganda and Tanzania, 2023 was the warmest year on record. The African continent is warming by +0.3°C every decade, faster than the global average. Heat waves described as ‘extreme’ by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) are on the increase every summer, particularly in North Africa, such as Tunisia and Morocco. These two countries set new records for maximum temperatures: 49°C in Tunis, Tunisia, and 50.4°C in Agadir, Morocco. Sea levels are also rising faster in Africa than the global average: +3.4 millimetres per year and up to 4.1 millimetres per year along the Red Sea.

Deaths, migrants, dollars needed

The consequences of all these climatic upheavals are not only human, but also economic. Thousands of deaths, millions of migrants and billions of dollars needed to cope with climate change.

In 2023, there were extremes in rainfall: floods killed at least 700 people in Libya (linked to cyclone Daniel) and drought wreaked havoc on crops in North Africa, among other places. In Tunisia, cereal production has fallen by 80% due to persistent drought. In Niger, Benin and Ghana, agriculture has partly collapsed due to the lack of water.

Weather disasters are causing huge population movements, exacerbating conflicts in areas that are already unstable: the historic floods that hit Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya caused at least 350 deaths (a figure that is probably greatly underestimated due to the lack of local information) and led to the migration of 2.4 million people in the space of just 3 months (April, May, June 2023).

The WMO estimates that African countries lose an average of 2-5% of their GDP (gross domestic product) due to climate-related disasters, and some spend 9% of their budget on them. Africa has no choice but to adapt to these meteorological extremes, but the cost will be immense: 30 to 50 billion dollars a year are needed, or 2 to 3% of GDP.

If very strong measures are not put in place now, the situation will become unbearable by 2030 for 118 million people: these are extremely poor populations in Africa (living on less than 1.90 dollars a day) who could be exposed to drought, floods and extreme heat if adequate intervention measures are not taken.

What are the solutions? According to the WMO, the priority is to develop weather and hydrological services (non-existent in some countries) and early warnings to better anticipate disasters, while putting in place more sustainable development practices.

The 7 meteorological phenomena

Meteorological hazards have always been part of our daily lives. In 1947, an exceptional heatwave hit Europe, with peaks of over 40°C recorded at the end of July in the Paris region, and a historic drought is suspected of being behind the fall of the Assyrian empire over 2,700 years ago. These hitherto unusual phenomena, exacerbated by climate change, could become the norm in the future. Seven weather phenomena will be the most frequent as a result of climate change.

Record rainfall

In July 2021, torrential rain fell in Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium. The result was catastrophic flooding, with several hundred deaths. While such episodes are normal in autumn, such a deluge in the middle of summer is quite unusual. According to a study by the World Weather Attribution (WWA), the probability of this type of event is now 1.2 to 9 times higher than in the pre-industrial era, due to global warming. A study by Newcastle University points out that ‘slow storms’ (which increase the amount of precipitation over a given area) could become 14 times more frequent over Europe by the end of the century. The explanation is simple: the warmer the air, the more water it retains. For every 1°C rise in temperature, scientists estimate that the atmosphere retains around 7% more moisture.

Cyclones

In 2020, a record 29 tropical storms were recorded in the Atlantic! Meteorological models do not indicate that global warming will make hurricanes more frequent, but that they will be more intense, with more powerful winds and higher rainfall. According to a Japanese study, hurricanes also penetrate further inland: as they develop over warmer oceans, they absorb and store more moisture, which prevents them from weakening when they reach land. Hurricanes could cause more damage by remaining in one place for longer.

Heatwaves

In June 2021, Canada experienced an unprecedented heatwave, with temperatures exceeding 45°C in several cities, sometimes more than 20°C above seasonal normal! It is a ‘heat dome’ encouraged by climate change, scientists say. According to a study by the Zurich Polytechnic, intense heat waves will become two to seven times more likely over the next three decades if greenhouse gas emissions continue at the same rate. Another 2020 study shows that the duration of heat waves increased by 6.4 days per decade between 1980 and 2017 in the Mediterranean region. In France, a heatwave equivalent to that of 2003 could occur every two years between now and the end of the century.

Lightning

According to calculations by the University of Berkeley in the United States, lightning strikes could increase by 12% per degree Celsius of global warming, and by around 50% over the course of this century in the United States. ‘This phenomenon can be explained by the increase in water vapour in the atmosphere, which fuels the movement of warm air currents,’ explains the study. ‘The faster the warm air masses rise into the upper atmosphere, the more lightning there is’. Another study reveals that the frequency of lightning could double over the Arctic by the end of the century. All this is not without consequences: in addition to the danger of lightning strikes for humans and animals, lightning causes major damage to forests: according to a study by the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, a lightning strike damages a total of 23.6 trees and destroys 5.5 of them per year in tropical regions. Lightning can also trigger devastating forest fires.

Coastal flooding

Global warming is leading to accelerated melting of the ice caps and thermal expansion of ocean water. These two phenomena combine to raise sea levels, threatening coastal towns. A rise in sea level of 5 to 10 centimetres will double the frequency of flooding in the tropics between 2030 and 2050, according to a 2017 study. Rising sea levels also increase flooding due to tides and storms, as the water starts at a higher level. An American study shows that, mainly because of these tropical storms, 100-year floods (which have a chance of occurring in 100 of a given year) could recur every year on certain American coasts. Coastal towns are under even greater threat from coastal erosion: as the ocean gains ground, it takes sand with it and weakens the rocks, increasing the risk of landslides.

Forest fires

In 2019, no fewer than 350 million hectares of forest burnt worldwide, the equivalent of six times the surface area of France. Australia, Siberia, Europe, the United States, Indonesia, Amazonia - no region has been spared. According to a meta-study published in 2020, global warming is clearly increasing the risk of forest fires, due to a combination of unfavourable phenomena: high temperatures, low humidity, low rainfall and violent winds. As a result, the global fire season is set to lengthen by 20%, with the result that more land will be burnt, an increase of between 33% and 62% by 2050, according to one of the studies cited in the report. The phenomenon is creating a vicious circle: in 2019, forest fires generated the emission of 6,375 mega tonnes of CO2, or around 20% of the year's total greenhouse gas emissions. CO2 which itself contributes to global warming.

Extreme cold

It may seem counter-intuitive, but global warming is also likely to increase the likelihood of extreme cold events. Researchers have found that the recent outbreaks of cold air observed in North America and East Asia were linked to the warming of the stratosphere and the retreat of ice in the northern seas. These phenomena disrupt the polar vortex, displacing the cold air towards areas further south. Secondly, the poles tend to warm up more quickly than the equator: as the temperature difference between the two poles decreases, atmospheric currents tend to weaken. By no longer acting as a ‘barrier’, these jet streams will allow more cold air masses from the polar regions to pass through.

See, L’Afrique est en train de s’effondrer à cause du climat trop extrême : la situation deviendra invivable dès 2030, alerte l’OMM et aussi 7 phénomènes météorologiques extrêmes qui vont se multiplier

Photo. In Niger several deaths and entire neighbourhoods ravaged by floods following intense rainfall. Villages and towns are trying to recover after the sudden rise in water levels, linked to the rainy season, which washed away almost everything.