It is a limited but concrete, serious and far-sighted initiative. I sincerely hope that Italy has the wisdom to support it.

The Commission should be tasked to ‘examine the physical effects and social consequences of nuclear war on a local, regional and planetary scale, including inter alia climatic, environmental and radiological effects, and their impacts on public health, global socio-economic systems, agriculture and ecosystems, in the days, weeks and decades after the nuclear war, and to review and commission relevant studies, including modelling where appropriate, and publish a comprehensive report, draw key conclusions and identify areas requiring future research.’

Surprisingly, this would be the first such study conducted by the United Nations since those in the 1980s, which were important in arriving at the wise treaties that led then to nuclear arms reductions. Many things have changed in nuclear armament since then, and the risk may even be more serious than we think.

Four considerations are relevant.

First, a government has already used nuclear weapons.

Second, we have come close to catastrophe several times in the past decades, even accidentally. In the most sensational case, the launch from a submarine that would have triggered nuclear war was approved by the first and second officers, and was blocked by the doubts and opposition of the third, who was not a career military. We live on the edge of the abyss.

Third, the US has recently dramatically increased its investment in nuclear weapons. The nuclear superpowers are now no longer just Russia and America, China is being added, unbalancing the two-pronged deterrence that until now has kept us perilously close to catastrophe, but prevented the worst.

Fourth, the recent abandonment of the treaties banning medium-range nuclear weapons makes deterrence much more fragile, because it increases the temptation of a reckless advance. A new serious risk assessment conducted by an authority above the parties such as the United Nations can bring a light of reason in a world that seems to need it so much.

I hope that Italy can, like Austria and Ireland, see the common interest of humanity in such a vital issue, and support this motion. It is not impossible that NATO will put pressure on its members to obstruct the motion. To give in to this pressure would be to fall into the short-sightedness of the dastardly power play between the parties, in an increasingly divided and increasingly belligerent world.

To oppose a push, even a small one, towards nuclear arms control is profound stupidity. I sincerely hope that this government has its back straight. At stake is the very possibility of our future.

See, Rischio nucleare e coscienza